Market Overview — June 19, 2025
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Sensex and Nifty decline: Both indices ended lower for the third consecutive day. Sensex closed down ~83 pts at 81,361.9, while Nifty fell ~19 pts to 24,793.2, slipping below the 24,800 mark.
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Global jitters: Escalating tensions in the Middle East (Iran–Israel) and a cautious stance from the U.S. Fed weighed on investor sentiment across markets.
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Fed hold: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25–4.5%, projecting persistent inflation (core PCE ~3.1%) and slower growth (~1.4% GDP in 2025), keeping global markets subdued.
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Sector performance:
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IT & financials dragged the market down, with IT stocks falling up to ~3.5%.
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Mid/small-caps were hit hardest, with midcap100 and smallcap100 dropping ~1.6–2%.
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Autos outperformed: Led by Mahindra & Mahindra, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto – the only sector to close in positive territory (~+0.5%) .
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Key stocks:
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Strong performers: Tata Consumer (+2.17%), Eicher Motors (+1.9%), M&M (+1.8%).
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Underperformers: Adani Ports (-2.5%), Bajaj Finance (-2%), Tech Mahindra (-1.6%), and other financials/metal/reality stocks.
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Maruti Suzuki bucked the trend: +0.51%, despite thin trading.
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Currency & commodities:
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Rupee weakened: Closed around ₹86.72–₹86.48, pressured by dollar demand from corporates and rising crude.
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Oil prices surged: Brent crude hit ~$78/barrel in thin US trading.
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Gold rose: As a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions.
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June 20, 2025 Outlook
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Flat start expected: GIFT Nifty and US futures indicate a muted opening (+6 to +11 points), with global markets mixed.
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Cautious tone: Market may remain rangebound—watch levels around Nifty 24,850 (resistance) and 24,550 (support). Breaking these could trigger next move.
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Focus factors: Israel–Iran developments, Fed commentary, China rate decisions, Japan inflation, domestic institutional flows, forex reserves .
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Trading strategy:
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Technical range: Nifty likely stuck between ~24,550–24,850 unless a catalyst emerges .
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Intraday picks (Mint): JSW Energy, Vishal Mega Mart, Voltas – with defined buy/sell levels.
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Bottom Line
Markets remain cautious due to a mix of geopolitical uncertainty, Fed’s cautious tone, and volatile commodities/currency. June 20 is shaping up for a consolidation session, with traders eyeing technical levels and global triggers carefully.